Courtyard Houses: From Bronze Compasses to Global Reach

Chapter 163: A Prediction of the Economic Trends Over the Next Three Years

Chapter 166: A Prediction of the Economic Trends Over the Next Thirty Years

Tang Liuqian took the initiative to shake hands with Lin Yan and introduce himself: "Xiao Yan, my name is Tang Liuqian, I am Xi En's fiancé, and I am currently studying finance at Yale University. It's nice to meet you."

Lin Yan reached out and shook hands, then quickly released them, smiling slightly. "Brother Tang, actually I knew who you were as soon as I heard your name. My family also has some businesses in Hong Kong, and I had the honor of meeting your father, Mr. Tang, at Uncle Fok Ying-tung's house before."

Tang Liuqian was surprised to find such a connection, and his face immediately lit up with delight: "Is that so? What a coincidence!" Their shared social circles and similar backgrounds made him feel much closer to Lin Yan, and they quickly started chatting, as if they had known each other for a long time.

Seeing this, Gu Weijun and Yan Youyun smiled and shook their heads. Aunt Yan, holding Xiaoqi, whispered to Old Master Gu, "Young people are so enthusiastic and outgoing. Look at them, they became friends in no time."

Tang Liuqian told Lin Yan that he studied finance and naturally wanted to hear this insightful young man's views on future economic development trends. "Xiao Yan, you have a keen eye. What are your predictions for the global economic landscape over the next few decades?"

Lin Yan hesitated for a moment. He knew that what he was about to say might seem shocking, but he was facing Tang Liuqian, who would make great achievements in the fields of finance and philanthropy in the future, and the Gu Weijun couple, who were well-versed in both Chinese and Western learning. He felt that it was appropriate to show some "foresight".

"Brother Tang, Uncle Gu, Aunt Yan, since you've asked, I'll offer my humble opinion. This is a bold hypothesis based on some observations and deductions." Lin Yan organized his thoughts and began to paint a grand economic blueprint:

"In the next ten to fifteen years, the Western world, especially the United States, may usher in a 'golden age' of post-war development," Lin Yan said. "Strong consumer demand and a booming manufacturing industry will likely lead to a long-term upward trend in the US stock market. At the same time, the Soviet Union, with its planned economy and focus on heavy industry, will at one point narrow the gap with the United States in terms of total economic output. However, this model is too heavily reliant on heavy industry and the military, neglecting light industry and agriculture. Internal contradictions will gradually accumulate, and in the long run, there will be considerable hidden dangers."

"The Bretton Woods system, currently centered on the dollar's peg to gold, appears stable but is actually facing enormous pressure," Lin Yan stated dramatically. "With the widening US trade deficit and the depletion of gold reserves, the dollar may decouple from gold, leading to a major upheaval in the global monetary system. This could be followed by a global energy price surge triggered by the oil crisis, plunging the Western world into an unprecedented 'stagflation' dilemma—the coexistence of economic stagnation and high inflation. This will pose a severe challenge to Keynesian economic management principles."

"While the two sides of the Atlantic are dealing with stagflation, the western Pacific will take off." Lin Yan turned his gaze eastward, "Japan, and the four Asian Tigers—South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan—which have port advantages, will achieve rapid economic growth through export-oriented strategies. Japan is even posing strong competitive pressure to the United States in fields such as automobiles and electronics."

"At the same time, technological advancements, especially the emergence and development of information technology, will gradually change the world. By the 1990s, the Cold War will have ended, the two parallel market systems will merge, and the era of true globalization will accelerate. Cross-border investment and trade will reach unprecedented levels, and China..." Lin Yan paused here, not going into detail about China, but the meaning was self-evident, "will integrate into and profoundly influence the global economy in ways we cannot imagine."

Lin Yan's words outlined a clear picture of the economic trajectory for the next few decades. Many of the details and turning points left Tang Liuqian, a Yale finance graduate, speechless. He had never heard of many of the concepts, yet they seemed to be logically consistent.

After a long period of contemplation, Mr. Gu Weijun slowly spoke: "Xiao Yan, what you said is truly... earth-shattering. If what you say is true, the world order will indeed be turned upside down. Your vision far surpasses that of your peers, and even transcends this era."

Tang Liuqian said excitedly, "Xiao Yan, your ideas are so insightful! There are many trends I still can't quite see clearly, but after your guidance, it's like a new window has opened before my eyes! I will definitely ask you for advice more often in the future!"

Lin Yan waved his hand modestly: "Uncle Gu, Brother Tang, you flatter me. These are just some of my own superficial speculations and wild thoughts. In the end, we will have to walk and verify the road ahead ourselves."